Virginia Budget Conferees Have a Job to Do — Revenue Uncertainty Is Not an Excuse to Avoid It
Relying on volatile gaming revenues without rigorous analysis — while vetoing cost-neutral legislation — is not fiscal caution. It is fiscal avoidance.
April 15, 2026, Public statements attributed to members attending this week's Virginia Senate Finance Committee — that it is difficult to formulate a budget without knowing what revenue will be available — warrant both context and a direct response.
Revenue estimates are, by definition, estimates. Professional fiscal staff prepare them precisely to enable budget deliberations to proceed without perfect foreknowledge. The Virginia General Assembly has always operated under conditions of some revenue uncertainty, and its institutional tools — reserve funds, contingency language, and mid-year adjustment mechanisms — exist to manage that uncertainty, not to justify delay.
When budget conferees have faced impasse in prior years, the path forward has been straightforward in principle if demanding in practice: meet, negotiate, compromise, and reach consensus. That is the role conferees are appointed to fill. The members of the Finance Committee were told as much by Virginia Secretary of Finance Mark D. Sickles at their Tuesday, April 14, meeting. Sickels should know what it takes, having served for over 20 years in the Virginia House of Delegates (representing parts of Fairfax County since 2004) and being recognized for his collaborative, bipartisan work on difficult budget and policy issues.
Virginia has navigated difficult budget environments before — periods of revenue shortfall, economic disruption, and sharp disagreement between chambers — and in each instance, the conferees' obligation has been to work through the impasse, not to condition progress on a level of fiscal certainty that the budget process itself is designed to provide. Citing revenue uncertainty as a barrier to agreement is not a departure from that tradition; it is an abandonment of it.
The deeper concern lies in the apparent stated reliance on projected revenues from gaming and casino operations as a meaningful budget variable. Absent a well-grounded economic analysis supporting those projections, such reliance is a flawed foundation for budget formulation. Gaming revenues are among the most volatile in any state's fiscal portfolio — sensitive to regional competition, consumer discretionary spending, and broader economic conditions. Building budget expectations around that revenue stream, without rigorous analytical support, undermines the very fiscal discipline the Committee's stated concerns invoke.
The recent veto of SB 756 provides additional context. That legislation's Fiscal Impact Analysis projected neither costs nor benefits to the state budget — it authorized a referendum, nothing more. Whatever the grounds for the veto, the bill placed no fiscal burden on the state. The Finance Committee's expressed difficulty in budgeting without known revenues; therefore, cannot reasonably be invoked in connection with legislation that made no demand nor express reliance on gaming revenues whatsoever.
The responsible path is clear: the time for finger-pointing is over. Conferees should meet, negotiate in good faith, apply appropriate caution to volatile and speculative revenue streams, and evaluate legislation based on what the fiscal record actually shows — as their predecessors have done.